Can someone run down some math for me? (RESOLVED)

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Corbeau
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Joined: Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:13 pm

Can someone run down some math for me? (RESOLVED)

Postby Corbeau » Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:17 am

...because I'm obviously an idiot and something I do doesn't add up.

So, I just lost four catapults against a small city on a hill surrounded by walls. Units that defeated my catapults - some of them veteran - are three warriors and one settler. It's possible that some warriors fought more times, but that would be an even bigger blunder.

So, some primary school math for me, please?
Last edited by Corbeau on Sun Jul 02, 2017 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Corbeau
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Posts: 346
Joined: Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:13 pm

Re: Can someone run down some math for me?

Postby Corbeau » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:23 am

Oh, nevermind, I just rechecked the figures and it turns out I was an idiot. Or at least didn't do math properly.

So, to share my findings with the world: veteran Warriors in a city on a hill with city walls has defrense strength 13.5. Yes, that's "thirteen and a half". If it was a Phalanx, it would be 27.

To share some strategic analysis thoughts: to destroy ONE such Phalanx (or two Warriors), you would need to lose 3-4 veteran catapults. (On the average. If you are very lucky, you will lose less, or if you are unlucky you will lose more.)

In other words, it's not really worth it. The problem becomes significant if such a city produces units that are to harrass you for months and don't let your nation grow. This means you have to spend considerable resources to keep them at bay.

So, in the end, it simply amounts to whether you are unlucky enough to have such neighbours.

Of course, if you are able to contain the raids, in the end you will have a developed nations and the raider will still be hopelessly stuck on their hill, working their land with wooden plows until you come to them with cannons or something. But that's probably th way of history. I was thinking that this spoils the game, but in the end it's realistic. The only spoiling is if your more civilized opponents are not so unlucky and can overtake you in the development because they didn't have such neighbours. But, again, that's history. Some get overrun by Mongols and some live in peace because they were in a better position.

madmax
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Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:34 pm

Re: Can someone run down some math for me?

Postby madmax » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:25 am

Each of them the first time they attacked, that is, your enemy didn't lose any unit?

Ok, I don't really know the maths, but maybe this is enough to not find it so strange:
- Hills give a 2x defense bonus.
- City walls give a 3x defense bonus.
- Veterans get another 1.5x.

Settlers: 1 defense -> 6, 20 health, 1 fire
Warriors: 1 defense -> 6, 10 health, 1 fire
Catapults: 6 attack, 10 health, 1 fire

Let's assume the maths in http://longturn.org/warcalc/ are correct, and we get:
Catapult vs warrior: 50% of winning
Catapult vs veteran warrior (x1.5): 19% of winning
Catapult vs settler: 3% of winning

So it seems you would lose your first catapult against the settler (two if it was veteran), and the settler would still be alive. Another one against each veteran warrior. And then it'd be about 50% chance against the surviving settler and the raw warriors. With those numbers I would expect the enemy to lose one unit, and one catapult to survive for a second attack, but no way to conquer the city.


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